Offshore water radioactivity on April 15 – over 10,000 terabecquerels, maybe over 60,000

On one day in April, there were at least 10,000 Terabecquerels of radioactive material in the ocean within 25 km of the Fukushima Daiichi power plant, and probably much more. TEPCO and the Japanese regulator, echoed by the IAEA, have only mentioned ocean contamination of  about half that much in total  (4,720  Terabecquerels).  TEPCO have not yet estimated the deposition from air onto the ocean surface.   This 10,000 tBq estimate is an underestimate for various reasons… it is for only one day, is only for part of the ocean, and assumes that water near the shore is only as contaminated as water from 15km offshore.   Using other assumptions, it could be that total ocean contamination is around 60,000 tBq (a third of that being Cs-137).

This estimation is based on TEPCO sampling data 15 km off the shoreline along a 50 kilometer section of the coast on April 15.  An estimation of how many litres of water are in that region, multiplied by TEPCO’s measures of contamination per litre on that day gives only a very rough estimate, but probably a low one.

It is probably low because there was certainly a lot more contamination outside that limited area on that day, and because this rough estimate uses data from 15 km offshore to calculate the levels much closer to the shore – other data indicate inshore densities are much higher.

On the other hand, this estimate assumes that the contamination at depth is the same as at the surface… but this seems a reasonable assumption, as shown by some measurements at the same place in both the upper and lower levels of the ocean).  And nowhere in the area are the depths much greater than 50 metres.

Three other things should be noted:

  • this is an estimation of just one day… possibly a similar amount of contamination in the same area a week before was probably already carried out to sea.
  • by April 15, much less  radioactive material was falling from the air onto the ocean or land, so it is likely that much of this water contamination is coming from the plant.
  • this contamination probably does not result from the early days of the disaster because ocean currents in this area are modelled to have taken most of that material far out to sea by now.
  • a few days before this, there was a large leak of radioactive water from the plant – see  Leaks of radioactive water admitted by TEPCO
  • month-long trend graphs of sampling near the plant indicate that ocean contamination from the plant decline only slowly, but analysis of this needs data on currents and a supercomputer.

Months ago MEXT used a supercomputer to project ocean contamination models, and the IAEA have sent ocean experts to look at the Fukushima accident, as well as contracting Toulouse university to model the ocean plume. But they have been very silent, as far as I know, in analysing real and recent data to estimate total ocean contamination.  Perhaps it is time they did this, especially given TEPCO’s nearly futile efforts to contain leaks of radioactive water from the plant with silt curtains and assurances that they are contstantly “monitoring the situation”.  Or they should publish their data-set as a spreasheet or database so other competent institutions could analyse it for them (if they have compiled the data).

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY DRAFT – COMMENTS WELCOME

Methodology

Tepco samples water at 6 locations  about 15km off the coast, and other points along the shoreline.   The Japanese ministry MEXT has been sampling about 30km offshore.    The locations can be viewed on a Google map here and below are the 15km-offshore TEPCO locations:

I have divided the ocean between these six sampling points and the shoreline into six sectors, each about 15km east to west, and variable distances north to south, as shown above.

From Google earth I have estimated the average depth of water in each sector (click the “ocean profile maps” in the table below), and from that I have roughly estimated the volume (i.e. number of litres) of each sector.  By multiplying  the volume of each sector by TEPCOs sampling per litre on April 15,  an estimate is made  of the total number of Becquerels in each sector.

Sector

Long

Lat

Average depth (m)

Google maps reference

T915km off Minamisomaapprox 25km NNE of F1

141.1889

37.65004

33

Ocean profile map

T1015 km off Ukedo gawa

141.1833

37.55464

31

Ocean profile map

T515km offF1 Daiichi

141.1864

37.42231

34

Ocean profile map

T615km off F2 Daini

141.1872

37.33333

41

ocean profile map

T715km off Iwasawa shore

141.1835

37.3

48

Ocean profile map

T815km off Hirono(25km sse of F1)

141.188

37.22262

59

Ocean profile  map

Using the Becquerel/litre sampling data of each point from TEPCO,  each sector’s radioactivity is calculated, very roughly:

Sector Bq/L area sq km litres Becq in sector
T9 214 150 4.95E+12 1.0593E+15
T10 820 135 4.185E+12 3.4317E+15
T5 570 165 5.61E+12 3.1977E+15
T6 256 90 3.69E+12 9.4464E+14
T7 225 90 4.32E+12 9.72E+14
T8 70 75 4.425E+12 3.0975E+14
Total tera bequerels 9915.09
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